We're About To Invade Sudan
What are we walking into?
On the 15th of April, 2023, extraordinary violence broke out across Sudan, seemingly out of nowhere. The “Rapid Support Forces” - a parallel Sudanese branch of the official military, basically your stereotypical African militia, armed mostly with anti-aircraft guns bolted onto Toyota pickups - launched a massive surprise attack against the Sudanese Defense Force, attacking the airport, Port Sudan, and Sudanese military forces (and civilians) across heavily populated areas in Khartoum. Almost a week later, after an incredibly pithy show of diplomacy by Blinken, diplomats have been shot at, beaten, and sexually assaulted, and the violence shows no signs of abating; Japan, France, and the US are mobilizing, ostensibly to rescue thousands of our citizens trapped in the crossfire, neighboring countries are getting involved, and the battle lines are being drawn. A new kinetic front of WW3 has been opened, and unfortunately for the people of Khartoum, it’s been opened right in their front yards.
Remember all the right-wing influencers talking about how we’re going to lose a major war? Well… here it is. There’s a lot more to this war than it seems, especially if your only sources of information are NAFO and the news media. At first they were trying to blame the Russian Wagner PMC; they have since taken the line that this is just a random power struggle between two African warlords. The outcome, which is looking decidedly unfavorable for our interests at this time, to say nothing of the Sudanese people caught in the crossfire, is going to change the face of global trade and economy for the foreseeable future, and as such, we are deploying boots on the ground alongside France. We are walking, blind and stupid, led by idiots and traitors, into what is increasingly looking like a very well-laid trap.
A quick timeline of events
Sep 28, 2022: US warns Sudan of consequences if it hosts Russian military base
Feb 12, 2023: Sudan agrees to host Russian naval base on the Red Sea
Mar 10: China negotiates peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran
Apr 4: Saudi Arabia’s MBS states they are “no longer interested” in “pleasing the US”
Apr 11: Leaked reports of Egypt’s plans to arm Russia against Ukraine
Apr 15: Sudanese Army is attacked by the Rapid Support Forces, killing 56
Apr 15: RSF rebels capture Egyptian Air Force MiG-29M2 jets
Apr 16: Official representative of RSF rebels announces defection
Apr 16: Numerous Twitter bots supporting RSF appear
Apr 17: Sudanese Army confirms it took control of all of its bases, refutes RSF's claims of taking the presidential palace, heavy fighting
Apr 17: RSF capture Jabal al-Awliya Air Base, south of Khartoum
Apr 17: US, New Zealand, others call for Sudan ceasefire; RSF agrees, SDF gives mixed signals, apparently convincing US media they would adhere to it
Apr 18: UH-60 Blackhawks spotted flying low in Sudan
Apr 18: Former CIA agent discusses the crisis in Sudan on CBS News
Apr 18: Sudanese Army raids RSF base in Marawi
Apr 18: General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan announces the blocking of RSF bank accounts
Apr 18: Evgeny Prigozhin denies PMC Wagner presence in Sudan
Apr 18: Several Mil Mi-24 destroyed in airbase captured by RSF
Apr 18: Sudan Civil Aviation Authority closes airspace
Apr 18: RSF calls for international military intervention
Apr 18: US State Department establishes Special Task Force for Sudan conflict
Apr 18: EU's top humanitarian aid officer in Sudan shot in Khartoum
Apr 18: Sudan rejects US Secretary of State's plea for a 24-hour humanitarian truce
Apr 18: Media reports false 24-hour ceasefire agreement in Sudan
Apr 18: Sudanese army accuses foreign belligerents of supporting RSF via landings at Meroe airport
Apr 18: Yasir Salih, Sudanese presidential hopeful, calls for foreign military mission to protect Sudan's capital and diplomatic missions
Apr 19: Japanese military deploying to Sudan to evacuate citizens
Apr 19: Egypt supports SDF with airstrikes, destroys the MiG-29s that were captured
Apr 19: Ethiopia attempts ground attack in the southeast of Sudan, SDF repels it
Apr 19: Egyptian military sending combat aircraft to support Sudanese Armed Forces, destroys their own MiG-29s captured by RSF
Apr 19: Weapons and support for RSF reported to be coming from Libya
Apr 20: 16,000 Americans trapped in Sudan amidst fighting
Apr 20: US, French military forces deploying to Djibouti for staging into Sudan
Too much?
To really understand what’s happening here, you’re going to need a geography lesson:
The Suez Canal is the aorta of the global economy; that narrow strait, in Egyptian territory, is a lifeline through which around 10% of global trade occurs. Oil, goods, raw materials, gold, and dollars; do you remember when the Evergreen blocked the canal for a few days, and everybody started panicking and doomsaying?
The countries which border the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, which is immediately south of the canal and the sea into which it flows, are as follows:
Egypt
Sudan
Eritrea
Djibouti
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Now, unless you’ve been living under a rock, you might have heard that the Saudis aren’t our biggest fans anymore. Saudi oil, the trade of which in US dollars was our saving grace after the USD dropped the gold standard in 1971, is now being traded in Chinese Yuan. Furthermore, it seems that the only reason the Saudis were always under attack and in need of our defensive help - both terrorist attacks from Iran, and the ongoing war in Yemen - was because of our involvement. A Saudi Arabia beset on all sides and desperate for military support suited us just fine. Unfortunately for us, with China having made peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and our bumbling clown for a President on his mission to lick the world, they don’t give a damn about us or our interests anymore.
One of those interests is control of the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.
This is where Sudan comes in. We didn’t have much in the way of interests in Sudan; the Russians had much more activity, mining gold, and selling them weapons of various kinds. The MiG-29s the SDF have been using to devastating effect against the RSF are, of course, Russian, as is much of their other weaponry. However, we did maintain ties with the RSF, as something of a just-in-case insurance policy, for exactly this eventuality, supplying them weaponry and maintaining diplomatic relations. Israel also, very recently, sold the RSF some cutting-edge spyware/intelligence technology, which was denied to the SDF and held exclusively by RSF. It’s also worth noting at this point that the RSF are the force responsible for the Darfur genocide.
Anyway, back to the point: there are six countries bordering the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. Until recently, we were good friends with most of them; with Egypt and Saudi Arabia on our side, Eritrea subjugated and impoverished, Yemen in a ceaselessly horrific war against radical Islamists, Sudan starting to find peace and democracy after 30 years of brutal military dictatorship, and Djibouti quite content to host our puppet government and military base, we pretty much had the Suez on lock, and it’s been that way for decades.
However, in three short years, Biden has - quite deliberately - managed to throw all of it away. Sudan, just a couple of months ago, finalized an agreement with Russia to host their naval base at Port Sudan, on the Red Sea. With Egypt’s amicability teetering, Saudi Arabia no longer at war with Yemen, and no longer our ally thanks to Brandon, and Sudan about to host a Russian military base, the region has, in a matter of months, gone from firmly under our military control, to a very hostile environment indeed. If we lose our military dominance over the region, and Russia gains their naval base in Sudan, then Russia would be freely able to close the canal and choke off a major global trade route on which US and European economies depend. Losing the canal means, in practice, far higher inflation, empty shelves, and significant vulnerability to Russian sanctions. It could be enough to force us to stop arming Ukraine, for instance. Depending on just how masochistic our leaders are feeling that day, anyhow.
Still too much?
Long story short: Nearly the entire Middle East and North African regions have turned on us like a cut snake, and Russia is poised to have a military stranglehold on our vital trade routes, via their planned naval base on the Red Sea.
So, what are we doing about it?
We’re bringing Sudan some democracy, of course. Except this time… it’s not going to go quite so well as it usually has in the past. We have a few major problems.
For starters, this Russian naval base has been in the works for quite some time. Contrary to popular belief, they are not idiots: our MO is well known by now, and they would be incredibly foolish not to have planned for this eventuality in the course of attempting to build their port.
The RSF’s actions early on in the piece aligned well with lessons learned from, and the actions taken against, Libya: they captured the airport, they attempted to capture the sea port, they attempted (or succeeded, it’s unclear) to capture the palace, and they have been going door-to-door searching for various Sudanese regime officials. Pretty stock-standard coup attempt at this point.
However, the Sudanese government was evidently quite ready for this eventuality. No senior Sudanese government officials were successfully captured, the sea port was successfully defended, the airport was bombed to uselessness in short order, the RSF’s HQ was destroyed, and to cries of indignation from various Western officials, the SDF utilized their uncontested air force to conduct airstrikes on the RSF, both in heavily populated civilian areas, and against strategic camps, large groups of soldiers, and wherever else the RSF presented themselves as targets. The RSF’s media spokesman defected on the second day of the war, and the RSF also managed to anger Egypt, capturing a training airfield the Egyptians maintained on Sudanese territory, a hundred-ish airmen, and five MiG-29s, causing them to enter the war on the side of the SDF. The same SDF, it must be re-stated, that is willing to host a Russian naval base in a position of dominance over an absolutely critical artery of global trade.
Sudan was very much ready for this attack, and it went very, very poorly for the RSF. Only days later, various Western officials were calling for a ceasefire - to which the Rapid Support Forces rapidly agreed, and the SDF, while apparently convincing us that they were also in favor of a humanitarian ceasefire, simultaneously wondered aloud why they would ever agree to such a thing, while foreign planes were on their way - apparently from Libya (which we destroyed under Hillary/Obama) - to bring heavier weapons and armaments to the RSF.
Much to the shock of the Western media, they were reduced to claiming that the ceasefire lasted “only a matter of minutes.” In reality, there was no ceasefire, and there never was going to be.
Ethiopia
So, that all sounds bad, but it’s pretty standard fare for these kinds of wars: rebels attacked, they lost, the “international community” called for a ceasefire, and the fighting went on. This is where the plot thickens.
The RSF is almost equal in manpower to the SDF. Both are (or at least, were) arms of the Sudanese government; the RSF is mostly guys in pickup trucks, while the SDF holds an arsenal more aligned with what you would expect from a national military, with artillery, heavy armor, aircraft, troop carriers, et cetera. They are engaged in fierce fighting across populated areas of the center, west, and southwest of Sudan, with thousands of men fighting and dying.
In the midst of this chaos, Ethiopia apparently decided that attacking Sudan right now, while they’re incredibly busy trying to retain control of their country, would be a great idea. Ethiopia is located to the south-east of Sudan, and far from any of the areas in which the Sudanese army is occupied fighting the RSF, so they mobilized and attacked with a significant ground force.
They were swiftly repelled. Sudan was ready and waiting, and decimated their forces.
Why is that notable?
Djibouti
As we speak, US Marines and French forces are presently massing in Djibouti. Djibouti is another African country, right on the Horn of Africa, and is also located to the south-east from Sudan - a couple of hundred miles southeast. It appears that the plan is for our boys to prepare in Djibouti, and then press northwest over land, through Ethiopia, and into south-eastern Sudan. Ostensibly, the mission is to evacuate 16,000 Americans presently trapped in the intense crossfire. I don’t believe that for a minute: in my opinion, this is an invasion and an occupation force, with which we will establish and maintain a force presence in Sudan, ostensibly to keep the peace, but in reality, to take over governing authority of Sudan from both the RSF and the SDF, and to prevent the construction of the Russian port.
There’s several problems with this approach.
Firstly, we have utterly hollowed out our military in Ukraine. The line used to be that we were just sending them spares and old stuff - for only 5% of our military budget, we cost Russia over 50% of their entire military, right? Well, that just ain’t so. Just last month, we asked South Korea to “loan” us 500,000 artillery shells, for provision to Ukraine. We’re completely out of them, and God only knows how much else we’re out of; at least anti-materiel recoil-less rifles are also in short supply, and even much earlier in the Ukraine war, deployed US military units were privately complaining that necessary equipment was being seized from them to send to Ukraine. So, our ammunition stockpiles are severely depleted. That’s bad, but it’s not that bad, in the scheme of things.
The French, with whom we are massing our forces in Djibouti, have also recently expressed serious doubts about Europe’s alliance with and dependence on the US; the Germans soon came to a similar conclusion, much to Marco Rubio’s apparent befuddlement and surprise. France has also started trading oil with China in Yuan, instead of USD. We have overthrown and destroyed countries for far less than that, but also for precisely that, namely Iraq and, of course, Libya. While French forces turning around and attacking us on the field in Sudan is, admittedly, an extremely unlikely event, even in light of all the unbelievable developments of late, it’s also worth remembering that during the attack on Libya, they very quickly depleted their air forces’ munitions - just how much use they’re going to be to us, even in the best case, is rather questionable, as is just how much cover our air assets will be able to effect.
The RSF also seem to have some idea that we’re planning to turn on them. I warned about this very early in the conflict (“very early” being just a few days ago) - the absurd social media troll campaign, to convince people the RSF was Russian/Wagner-supported, appears to have backfired; with the RSF also very active, suspiciously so, on Twitter, with both lots of well-written English-language diplomatic statements and calls for Western intervention (while Sudanese people mocked them for speaking in English), and a campaign of AI-generated bot content in support of them - they are also quite present on Twitter.
With their handlers telling them one thing, but the glaringly obvious NAFO trolls and Ukraine flag bots insistently telling anybody who would listen that RSF was Russian-supported, it would not have been difficult to conclude that we were going to turn on them. Lo and behold, US diplomatic convoys are being fired on, the EU ambassador was attacked, and a female Japanese diplomat was assaulted: once is an accident, two is coincidence, but three is a pattern, and it appears our attack dogs are no longer quite so in the dark as they were. I have to wonder if the convoy of terrain-hugging UH-60 Blackhawks filmed flying at a clip down a Sudanese river might not have been the real extraction mission of whoever was handling them on the ground.
Furthermore, the rapid and overwhelming force employed by the Sudanese military, and the uncanny correctness of their strategic and tactical actions in utterly defeating the RSF’s initial strategic push - including the quick closure of airspace to deflect aerial logistics for RSF - strongly suggests that they have Russian assistance in armament, training and planning. It certainly isn’t a difficult leap to make, given their existing and extensive trade and military connections with the Russian government, and the utter predictability of our own actions. The fact that the Ethiopian attack from Sudan’s south-east barely registered a blip, suggests that there is a significant and apparently unnoticed buildup of forces awaiting our arrival, precisely where we will do so. They’ve made quite a few surprisingly good decisions. Without having done so, they could already have been turned into Libya.
At any other time in history, it would be laughably absurd to think that the Sudanese military could pose any danger to a combined force of US, French, and Japanese militaries. However, given the facts that our senior military leadership is an absolute clown show, our intelligence is not showing much of it, and we are walking into a situation in which we are effectively surrounded on all sides by hostile forces - and, they are very much ready and expecting us - And, we are only deploying roughly a battalion of men - around 1200 Marines - to attack a country with two warring militaries of ~150,000+ men, and lots of very heavy weaponry …
The talking heads have been predicting, for some time, that we are going to lose a major war. This will be the first new boots-on-the-ground deployment in quite some time. Such a small force is going to be extremely vulnerable, even with our far superior technology - and that’s also presuming both that the Russians haven’t somewhat evened the playing field, and that we even still have any serious quantities of advanced weapons to bring to bear at all. If we are planning to approach this, as the Sudanese presidential “contender” suggested (echoes of Guaido in Venezuela there, too, for a hint to the longer game) by establishing a green zone, and subsequently expanding from that foothold to take control of the country - relying on our military’s fearsome reputation to forestall attacks, from otherwise overwhelming Sudanese forces, until we can establish an air bridge and fly in more forces …
We could be in for a shock.